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$BFT (FoleyTrasimene II), SPAC to become Paysafe
I think that this one has been under-reported somewhat but since I work in the online gaming industry, it showed up on my radar. This SPAC has reached a deal to bring back Paysafe to the market, at a valuation of 9 billions. What is Paysafe? Paysafe Group has been consolidating the market for e-wallets and alternative payment methods for years and went back into private hands 3 years ago. They regroup all the main e-wallets used for online gambling and Forex: Skrill and Neteller and also prepaid cards (to be bought in 7/11 and the like) under the Paysafe brand. Why e-wallets matter in the online gambling market? E-wallets and prepaid cards represent about 25% of the volume of payments in online gambling in UK, Europe, Canada and Skrill/NetellePaysafe are by far the biggest names in this field. https://www.fisglobal.com/-/media/fisglobal/WorldPay/Docs/Miscellaneous/Gaming%20Payments%20Report%202019 Neteller and Moneybookers (as Skrill was known then) were dominating the US alternative payment methods gambling market in the US before they got pushed out in 2007. They still have high name recognition amongst the gambling crowd and web searches in the US for these brands remain high, even if they can’t process much transactions there for gambling since many states don’t have online gambling legislations yet, or very limiting ones. E-Wallets are often the preferred payment method for gamblers since it allows to move money from one operator site to the other quickly and cheaply. They can also use it as a bankroll segregated from their main bank account/CC and on top of that, Paysafe offers loyalty benefits to users based on their transaction volumes. As such, their user retention is very good. The prepaid card business is also a major factor for this stock attractiveness. Prepaid cards to be bought in gas stations or the like are often preferred by gamblers who want to strictly control their gambling or those who don’t have access to a CC (maybe because they gambled too much) or those that prefer cash transactions out of privacy concerns… Why not invest in the gambling operators instead? Operators such as Draftkings or legacy casino groups are going to make money but the regulatory environment is harsh and gambling taxes are crazy in some states and might keep going higher. Moreover, the regulations being so fragmented, many smaller operators push in certain states and not others and the competitive environment is broad. Remember that gambling is a fungible good. There is no difference in the casino games that the operators can offer (same game studios, same rules) and aside from bonuses and the margins on sports bets, the only differentiation is in branding, which is a thin moat on a product that often leaves the users disgruntled (losers). Payments on the other hand are not taxed for their relationship to gambling and there are far fewer players. How does Paysafe make money? The margins on their products are pretty high and Paysafe charges both sides of the transaction in the case of the e-wallets and the merchant side in the case of the prepaid cards. For the use of Skrill and Neteller wallets, Paysafe charges on average 4.5% on the merchant side for deposits and a whooping 9.9% on deposits with prepaid cards… Larger merchants certainly can negotiate these rates down but this is still a healthy fee, much higher than credit card processors. In markets where Paysafe has established domination they charge a small deposit fee to the user and a withdrawal fee. For now, they charge no fees to the US users in a bid to grow market share surely but that will probably end some day. Growth opportunity: For now, the US online gambling market is still very limited. Most states have not legalized, the majority of those who have legalized only did so for sports betting and then a handful have legalized online casino gaming (where the real money is made). The opening up of the market is bound to grow as states need money and more of the world moves online. https://www.playusa.com/us/ It is estimated that the online gaming market could reach 25 billions a year in the US in a few years time and 150 billions worldwide. https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/online-gambling-market#:~:text=The%20North%20America%20online%20gambling,CAGR%20during%20the%20forecast%20period. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-online-gambling-market These revenues do not equal to deposited amounts, they equal net deposits (deposits minus withdrawals). The hold % of online casinos can be anywhere between 50% and 80% depending on how degenerate the market is in a given country but we can conservatively assume 60%. This means that deposits volume in the US alone would reach about 40 billions, Europe about 50 Billions and worldwide 250 billions. That should give Paysafe around 8-10 billions in transaction volume per year in the US alone , another 10-12 billions in Europe and conservatively, another 20 billions worldwide. Valuation estimates: Rough estimates are therefore revenues of about 1.5 billions per year for Paysafe group in a few years for gambling alone. Paysafe claims 1.5 billions in revenues total projected for 2021, with only a third from gambling. Even assuming no growth from the other verticals, this means that the total revenues of Paysafe should grow by 66% with gambling alone in the next 5 years or so. Pysafe is investing a lot into expansion in other areas than gambling, notably video-gaming and remittance so assuming they don’t fuck it up completely, we are likely to see a 3 billions dollar in revenues in the next 5 years. Using Paypal’s marketcap vs revenues, that would mean 50 billions in marketcap for Paysafe… Of course, Paypal is ingrained deeply in the whole of ecommerce and Paysafe is more specialized in gambling which might be shakier and herefore command a lower valuation. The deal details are not fully known but it looks like a current valuation of 9 billions for Paysafe Group upon listing. Based on my estimates, the marketcap could reach 50 billions in a few years time, one US market for gambling fully opens. $BFT is trading at a 25% premium right now, therefore the estimate is 4x on investment over a few years. Obviously you retards are not the most patient bunch but I believe the stock will jump when it morphs and so keep an eye out for the options.
I'll cut off my dick for the ability to use a regulated site. (Shit post FYI)
*Its been a few months.. and it's about that time that I make a shit post where I bitch about everything* To all my fellow US players getting fucked in the ass per usual... WHAT THE FUCK DO I HAVE TO DO TO USE A HONEST POKER SITE!? It's 2021 and it has been almost a decade since I have been able to use a worthy-poker-site such as Full Tilt, Stars, 888, Party Poker, and so on. I am starting to fall out of love with poker because I can't keep playing on these bullshit sites located in Panama and throughout the Caribbean. Here are a couple of my experiences from the past 8-ish months or so. ACWPN/BCP: - 2 to 4 months ago I received 2 PARTIAL refunds due to bots being at my table, in which one scenario was a final table. Didn't even get a full fucking refund. This also doesn't mention the other partial refunds I received earlier in 2020. - As you all well know, ACR has had multiple scandals going back to 2012, like the the 2018-2019 PLO/NL cash game bots and several people colluding together to take advantage of the late reg glitch. Nagy can eat a fat dick. - If you play at America's Cardroom in 2021 you're a fucking retard. (No offence) Betonline/BOL: - 6 months ago Betonline removed $1000 from my poker balance on my account and said that the money was transferred to my sportsbook balance at 4am PST and all of it was spent in the online casino. When I asked them to investigate they did nothing. So I asked their Fraud/IT Department to send me a list of all devices, MAC addresses, and IP addresses that signed into my account that day... They refused to cooperate... Customer service said it was against company policy to release that type of information, even though its MY OWN fucking account and personal information. ( I took a break from the site but eventually returned because US players have no options and I love MTTs.) - 2 months ago I deposited $50 of ETH to their sports book to bet on an NFL game. Blockchain.com confirmed that BOL's Etheruem address received my money, and I even sent customer service proof of the transaction THREE TIMES. They still refuse to issue me my $50 deposit to this day, stating "our system says the deposit is still pending". - 2 days ago I received a $5 refund from a Windfall Sit n Go because the 2 other two players at my table were bots :) :) :) I should just kill myself at this point. WHO THE FUCK HAS BOTS AT THE JACK POT SIT N GO. Bovada/Ignition: - Honestly, I haven't used them in like a year or two because they removed the chat box, make it a pain to utilize HUD software, and that fucking update they did to their software. That huge software update was so fucking horrible the sites damn near unplayable. I'm sure you guys remember the old canvas/layout that Bovada/Iggy use to utilize, it was way better. Anyways, I just don't know what to do anymore. I NEVER had any of these issues back in the Full Tilt days. I don't even want to play half the time because I'm sick of all the bullshit. I am also in Los Angeles, CA so the lockdown bullshit makes live poker a huge pain in the ass. Some casinos are open, some are closed, some are outside, some make you wear mask and sit in between plastic dividers, some allow you to order drinks but not food. It's all fucking stupid. I really want to use my VPN but I don't want to build up a bankroll on a legit site like PartyPoker and then have my funds frozen. Maybe I should just hang myself instead. (joking, just being a dramatic pussy) On a serious note, thank you for listening to me bitch and moan about my first world problems. I hope ya'll are happy, healthy and staying covid-free. Cheers to 2021, MAY THE POKER GODS BE IN YOUR FAVOR!
Summary of Findings I am recommending that you take a close look at NamSys Inc. NamSys Inc is a simple predictable free cash flow generative business with a durable competitive advantage and a long runway ahead of it. It has a strong market position in the cash management industry and a growing SaaS business model. As of January 5th, 2020, NamSys Inc, which trades under the ticker symbol “CTZ”, closed at a share price of $0.90 or a market cap of $24.5m. It has about $5.5m in net cash on the balance sheet and the stock currently trades at a 9.3x pre-tax cash flow multiple, which translates to a 10.8% pre-tax free cash flow yield. At this price, I think it is worth a close look. Business Overview NamSys Inc is a small company based in Toronto, Ontario that specializes in providing SaaS software solutions to the cash management industry for financial institutions, retailers, casino operators, transit services, and to many different government entities. It sells 4 cloud based software solutions: Smart Safe Monitoring, Cash-In-Transit (CIT) logistics, Currency Controller (cash vault management), and Deposit Tracking (Banking). NamSys’s cloud based solutions are labelled under the brand name, “Cirreon ''. Cirreon Smart Safe - The Cirreon Smart Safe product segment represents over 70% of NamSys’s total revenues and it has been growing at approximately 20% compounded annually over the past 10 years. The software solution is being sold in 24 countries but most of it is in North America. There are 16,000 NamSys smart safes out of a total of 80,000 smart safes in North America, which translates to 20% market share in the smart safe segment. Cirreon CIT Logistic Software - The CIT logistic software assists cash-in-transit operators, who are responsible for safely transporting a business’s physical cash to the bank, to manage day-to-day operations. The Cirreon CIT software solution is an app that allows CIT providers to manage their fleet, track pickups and deliveries, strategically map routes, provide GPS navigation services, and also allows the CIT driver to communicate with the other drivers or customers. The CIT logistic software represents 4-5% of total revenues. CIT sales have been growing by 300% over the past two or three years, according to management, so it is a stream of revenue that will grow at huge rates over time. NamSys Inc has a long-term partnership with CIT providers across North America. The biggest CIT customer is Brinks, similar to the smart safe product. Brinks control 25% of the CIT service market in the cash management industry, which obviously exposes NamSys to 1/4 of the total market. Currency Controller - The Currency Controller is a cash vault system used to process cash, count cash, and fill cash orders. The Currency Controller can be found within ATM and bank machines and assists banks and CIT services with accounting, billing, management and fulfillment that they need to perform for customers. The Currency Controller segment represents about 20-30% of sales and it has grown at 50% compounded over the past 3 years. It is available with a license and a subscription-based pricing model although the subscription model is becoming more popular. Cirreon Banking - The Cirreon Banking app is a new product segment that has been introduced a few years ago and represents about 8% of total revenues. The Cirreon Banking app helps customers create and track deposits, place change orders, and request support, all from the customer’s phone. The Cirreon Banking app is sold as a subscription just like the rest of the Cirreon software solutions. Durable Competitive Advantage High Switching Costs - Once a retailer is hooked up onto the Cirreon platform, the idea of switching to another software platform is very unlikely and rather costly. Since Cirreon holds all of the retailer’s financial data related to invoices, cash inflows and outflows, and other important information, transferring this data on to a whole different platform will not only take up a lot of time and money, but sometimes might not be technologically possible. The Cirreon platform uses Java based programming, which makes it almost impossible to transfer data. In addition the learning curve for business owners and retailers when joining a new platform is very steep, which makes it uneconomical for NamSys customers to switch and spend hours, if not days, getting used to a whole new set up. The high switching cost nature of the software solution is evident with the high customer retention rates of the Cirreon platform, which management has reported to be very high. In the CIT logistics segment, NamSys provides navigation services and GPS software which interacts with the Cirreon platform to help retailers track where their cash is heading while also allowing CIT providers to communicate with local financial institutions. NamSys also has the benefit of high switching costs because CIT providers almost always stick with their logistic software providers and rarely switch. This is mainly because NamSys’s logistic software is already embedded in the CIT network system and the cost of reprogramming all the computers inside the CIT trucks and stopping business is so high, that it remains uneconomical for a NamSys customer in the CIT logistics space to switch over to another software provider. Product Differentiation - Cirreon integrates many different parts of the cash management cycle onto one platform. There are very few services like this in the cash management industry that offer an all-in-one, easy to use service. In fact, the closest product offering could be from Safeology, which is a new tech startup, prominent in Europe. However, even Safeology fails to offer the quantity and quality of services NamSys provides to customers, as they do not have an established smart safe software service or an online banking app. In the most recent annual shareholder meeting, management has asserted their ability to increase prices to improve profitability. However, from a strategic perspective, they prefer to continue to add value to customers by keeping prices stable and remaining much more competitive in the marketplace. If you can add enormous value by providing a better quality service at great prices, then it is almost inevitable that the business will succeed over the long term. Holding this philosophy over the past 5 years contributed to the stellar growth in the business and I expect this to continue. Brinks Long Term Partnership - NamSys and Brinks have strong business relationships with each other that should last over the long term. They both have a 3 year contract with an option to renew the contract at the end of each term. Since NamSys has already penetrated Brink’s ecosystem, it is expected that their customer relationship continues over the long term. With Brinks focusing on the hardware side and NamSys providing the software, both Brinks and NamSys have worked together to launch extremely successful cash management products and have been rapidly expanding to over 24 countries. NamSys is able to piggyback on Brink’s acquisition driven approach for expansion and its 23% share of the global cash management market, which provides countless opportunities for NamSys to grow and gain more market share in the software industry. For example when Brinks acquired Dunbar or G4S (both are cash management companies), they converted Dunbar and G4S’s old cash management software and integrated NamSys’s software in all the smart safes, CIT logistic networks, and currency controllers. As a result, NamSys inherits a strong market position and bigger network when Brinks acquires its competitors. Most of NamSys’s competitors lack valuable customer relationships with big players like Brinks and it is part of the reason why NamSys has been able to keep high returns on invested capital and operating margins for a decade. Revenue Breakdown and Capital Efficiency The SaaS revenue stream consists of hosted service fees and technical/maintenance support. It is clear that from 2015 to 2019, the recurring revenue stream has grown to 83% of total sales revenue. The licenses segment as a % of revenue has been decreasing as it represents an old fashioned method of selling software (customer provides a payment at the time the software is provided). This is more or less caused by customers abandoning licenses and getting onto the SaaS platform, which is a much cheaper option. The professional services segments represent the small customized projects NamSys does for specific customers but we will exclude this out of our analysis as it is negligible and very volatile. The business requires very little incremental capital to maintain and grow its line of business. ROIC has gone from 135.6% in 2015 to 463.8% in 2019, which illustrates the capital light nature of NamSys’s business. With very little tangible capital employed, NamSys was able to grow revenues at a 20% CAGR over the past five years and increase cash flow generation significantly. Revenue growth exceeded 20% in 4 out of the 5 past years, besides 2018. Revenue growth in 2018 fell down to 12% primarily due to NamSys’s decision to fully convert its currency controller segment, which makes up about 20% of revenues, into a SaaS model. Before, customers had to pay a big upfront cash payment (software licenses), but this all changed during 2018 when customers had to pay a fraction of the big upfront cash payment, due to the shift in payment terms. Thus, the lack of revenue growth in 2018 can be seen as an anomaly. Furthermore, gross margins have averaged about 71% over the past five years, declining 2-4% in 2018 and 2019 due to an increase in staffing costs. Operating and EBITDA margins are very healthy, averaging about 43% over the past 5 years, which illustrates stellar operating performance. FCF margin has averaged about 38% over the past 5 years, moving up and down due to aberrations in changes of working capital. Finally, the company has averaged about 29% FCF growth over the past 5 years, however the volatility in the changes in working capital create stark differences in the yearly figures. Moreover, based on analyzing NamSys’s historical growth and margins, one can conclude that NamSys is a predictable business that will grow over the long term. Opportunities to Grow The smart safe software revenue segment, which consists of 60% of total revenues, has grown at 28%+ per year over the past 5 years. With Brink’s, a $3B private security and protection company, being the largest customer, NamSys can piggyback on Brink’s international growth plans. NamSys has a strong customer relationship with Brink’s, as Brink’s builds the hardware for the smart safe and NamSys installs its proprietary software into the smart safe. At the moment, over 16,000 smart safes with NamSys software are being used in North America. However, in places like South America, the smart safe market is growing at 100% per year while in places like the Middle East or Africa, there is no smart safe market. NamSys has significant international opportunities to grow and expand its software service, which should be a prime driver of growth moving forward. If you do the math, Brinks projects that there will be 1.2 million potential new locations for smart safes to be installed worldwide. If the partnership between Brinks and NamSys gets hold of 10% to 20% of this market, this could mean about 60,000 to 120,000 smart safes installed within the next decade. Right now, NamSys Inc has around 16,000 to 18,000 smart safes installed. Over the next decade, I conservatively project that NamSys Inc can 3x to 7x their sales today, as long as they keep good customer relationships with Brink’s. Obviously, this is not accounting for the fact that Brink's is gaining a ton of market share through acquiring a lot of its competitors, which should yield more market share for NamSys in the software development space. In addition, NamSys is currently experiencing huge tailwinds in their CIT logistics and currency controller software lines of business as well. I think there is a great runway with Next Gen ATM and the whole trend behind CIT companies acquiring ATM networks. With Next Gen ATM, NamSys can be positioned to sell not only their CIT logistics application but also their cash vault (currency controller) product as well. Furthermore, NamSys is also participating in a pilot project with the US Federal Reserve, with testing new software products and solving issues relating to the transportation of cash. The revenues from this pilot project should materialize within the next 3-4 years, as it is a long term project. Management The CEO of NamSys Inc is Barry Sparks, who has been the CEO for over 15 years. Mr. Sparks is the President of Torvan Capital and owns 40% of NamSys common stock through this investment vehicle. The President and COO Jason Siemens has been with the company for about 23 years and owns about 0.8% of the common stock. Mr. Siemens is a very competent manager, who thoroughly understands the cash management business. Through analyzing all the past earnings transcripts and shareholder meetings, it is evident that Mr. Siemens has a clear strategy on building NamSys’s moat and growing the business. One of the best and worst capital allocation decisions management has ever made was entering the hardware market (a lower ROIC business) in 2006 and leaving it in 2011, which led to NamSys’s stellar financial performance from 2012 and onwards. In addition, there has been no shareholder dilution (through stock based compensation) over the past 10 years, which is beneficial for long term shareholders of this business. Along with the Board and Mr. Sparks and Mr. Siemens, I think NamSys is a well managed and shareholder friendly business and I do not foresee any managerial issues arising from the individuals who run this company. COVID-19 Impact NamSys Inc has not really been negatively impacted by COVID-19 when compared to most other companies. A lot of their customers are grocery chains and gas stations that were running even when most businesses were closed. Revenues for Q2 2020, period ending April 30th, increased by 14.5% when compared to Q2 2019. Revenue for the first six months of fiscal 2020 increased by 19.2% when compared to revenue in the same period in fiscal 2019. NamSys generated a significant amount of free cash flow and the cash balance grew to $5.5m, up from $4.3m from Q1 2020. COVID-19 had an immaterial impact on NamSys Inc from a financial standpoint, which further emphasizes the durable business model of NamSys Inc, which can grow even during a pandemic and recession. So, while most businesses are struggling amid today’s unstable business environment, NamSys is growing its market share and throwing off more cash. Valuation I think NamSys’s intrinsic value will grow and compound over time, given its sticky business model and long growth runway. Please see for the supporting financial model of the base case valuation. For the base case valuation, I think a reasonable case would be projecting out a revenue CAGR growth of 13.7% over the next 5 years until 2024 (compared to 24.6% between 2015 and 2019). Given the company has a history of growing revenues at 20%+ CAGR over the past five years and the future growth potential in its smart safe and Cirreon banking application segment, I expect operating margins and its cost structure to remain stable over time. Keeping the 15x FCF multiple constant, the value of the business will grow to about $2.00+ per share by 2024, which represents an IRR of 23% per year. I think this is a compelling investment opportunity with significant upside. First DD, so thanks for reading :) I have 2,500 shares at 0.88
TLDR: buy DKNG, 30% short term upside, 300% mid-long term upside, small market cap, meme stock potential (small cap, insane upside potential, wouldn't be surprised if FOMO kicks in), it's a fucking betting company - and you know how you gamblers are why tf none of you gamblers are talking about this? anyway, DKNG is disgustingly undervalued (currently ~48$), and I can easily see 300% gains in next 2 years, and have 70$ target in mind in next 1-3 months short term bullish
united states are starting to legalize online sports betting, and are doing it fast one by one (last they did so in MI, they are launching in early 2021)
2020 was void of sports due to beer plague, and all big competitions (euro soccer, olympics etc) are moved to 2021, and 2022 is following immediately with world cup
company still had great profits (i'm sure some - probably one or two of you - can read financial statements better than me, but what i have seen is pretty good)
long term bullish
legalization in the US
US is really young market compared to europe and asia, it's actually funny - there is so much space to grow it's insane
management - guy that started this, could've cashed out a long time ago - but here he is, company has no debt, and is valued 20 bil during global pandemic when most of the sport was canceled, postponed etc, computer science and marketing major - golden ticket in this industry (lots of dinosaurs that still think retail betting - betshops, ssbt-s are a way to go
clean balance sheet - 2.5 bil assets, 0.5 bil liabilities and no debt
been working in the online sports betting and online casino industry for the past 3 years, so i've got some insights on the topic industry insight: - average hold (how much the house keeps of each bet) is 7% for prematch (matches that you bet on before they begin)- average hold for live bets is around 11% (margins are insane here)- average return to player on casino games is around 95% (so 5% hold on each spin on online casino)- player retention is off the charts, average session duration of around 20 minutes- players that register and make deposit are not going anywhere, where they usually start betting, continue betting there for a long time (there are a few reasons for this, not sure how interested you are in this though)- acquisition cost per customer drops steadily more players you have- US has really just began embracing online sports betting market (huge upside potential)- increase in operations cost for each new player is negligible wouldn't be surprised if this went to moon in the near future edit: positions: shares, all 12 of em
Chae’Sol stood at the centre of a large command deck, meticulously peeling the protective film from his new captain’s chair. The sensation of the slow but steady yielding of the film, the sweeping line following the contours of the seat in flowing curves; it was incredibly satisfying. Finally, with one last gentle pull, the last of his chair was uncovered and he stood back to admire his throne. Aside from the freshness of the seating itself, there were shiny new holo displays, touch sensors, and comms relays that were within easy reach of his seated fingertips. This ship would be the jewel in any fleet, a prototype Dreadnought made by the infamous Bardul of Shi’an. The Gowe Military faction had run into financial problems, and it had been left unpaid and unclaimed. What sorcery Kadir had used to find it, and purchase it, he did not know. His comms unit beeped and Danyd’s voice came through. “Chae’S-” -He grumbled incoherently- “Captain, we’re ready to get underway.” The Niham turned and sat back on his pristine chair, swinging his long legs over the armrest. “That was quick, Chief Engineer Ef’Yto” Danyd grunted at the use of his title. “Aye, these Awakened are efficient bastards.” The Satryn looked around at the enormous engineering bay. The entirety of the Porkchop Express could comfortably sit inside, and two of them could likely squeeze in. “Plus, this thing has never been used; feels weird not having anything to work on. It’s state of the art, and I’m having to read the manuals on half the new systems.” Chae’Sol laughed, looking around at the Awakened as they were preparing their workstations. “Yeah, this command deck is a little intimidating. Even the Niham Armada didn’t have ships like this. There are fifteen weapons stations here, what in Tulseria’s name were the Gowe planning to do with this thing?” “No idea.” The chief engineer walked to the large seat in front of his new work terminal, and hopped up onto it. The protective covering squeaked. “This thing has more firepower than half their fleet, it must have been something big. We’re lucky Kadir found out about the graveyard of unclaimed ships from one of his contacts.” The newly-minted captain swung his legs down and sat up, straightening his black uniform and white collar. “That’s another thing: how does he have so many contacts? I was in the Tulseria-damned military, and I had no idea they would sell us fighters and weapons.” “I know the feeling.” Danyd watched a junior engineer – Lily, an Awakened who wore a headband in her silver hair that sported long Kittran ears on it – begin running diagnostics on the Hoban Field Generator. “I'm aware he got the automated weapons for the system port from my people, somehow. As for how he accomplishes all he does, I think his time working with that fancy Anatidae councillor opened more than a couple of doors for him.” Chae’Sol stood, running his fingers through his perfect hair. “Doors, windows, rear entrances and damned secret portals, all leading to a dark realm of shady deals and supplies. We have an Imperium Capital Ship for Tulseria’s sake! Nobody knows where he got it, or where he’s now hidden it.” He looked at his holo display, noting the specks springing blinking into existence as the other ships of Federation origin came to life. “Let’s just be glad he’s on our side.” The chief engineer tugged at the green collar to his uniform. “Our side used to be a damn sight smaller.” Lily had finished her diagnostic tests and sent the results to his console. Her report included an adjustment that would create a potential three percent increase in crystal efficiency, and a small drawing of a smiling leokit with a crim-bar. He groaned, then reported back with, “We’re ready to go when you are.” The Niham strode confidently across the command deck, stopping to stand in front of the huge vid screen at the front of the room. All around him were his crew, made up mostly from the Ashi, Awakened, and Kasurians. “Let’s get this show started.”
Jaym sat with a bowl of Tony the leokas cereal in front of her. It wasn't just a catchy advertising slogan - it really was great. She and Elizabeth had worked together so much in the engineering section of the Porkchop Express that they had become close, often spending their free time together. Indeed, Elizabeth currently sat opposite her, carefully rebuilding a power coupling and occasionally tapping at her datapad. Shortly after the results of her most recent tap played out, Elizabeth paused her work on the power coupling. Without speaking, she held up her datapad so that Jaym could see. On the screen was Tony and his mate Jolie, and Skeena’s voice could be heard excitedly talking about collecting urine samples from the female. Jaym screwed up her face at first until Skeena announced the pregnancy test was positive. Tony was going to be a father! She couldn't contain her joy and screamed loudly, grabbing the screen and running all the way to the bridge to show the others. Ranjaz was stretched out across the captain’s chair as Jaym burst in, and didn’t open his eyes until she began shaking his leg. Even then he didn’t pay much attention. “I told you not to let Elizabeth play with any more systems till after the mission.” She blushed slightly, as their last improvement had inverted their water treatment system and blown six power couplings. "It's not that!" she said, holding up the datapad and starting the video. "Look!" At the first syllable of Skeena's voice, Ranjaz sat bolt upright. The video held his full attention, and when Tony's impending fatherhood was announced the Kittran's whoops of delight could be heard all through the Porkchop Express. He reached underneath his seat and retrieved a small, fluffy bed, then picked up Aiov. Ranjaz led his unusual dance partner in a quick spin of joy before replaying the GalacTube video for her. “You’re going to be an Aunty!” Eruwenn leaned back in the large seat that had once been Embar’s. “I didn’t think they were related?” The Kittran nodded. “Aiov is Tony’s sister. Aaron adopted them both, and that’s how human families work. They just keep adding members, like a Dular adding shells to its burrow. Family is family.” Cygna pressed a few buttons on her Navigator terminal, moving the video to the main screen as well as starting it over. “I still can’t believe you keep one of these under your seat. I mean, it’s a leokas!” Ranjaz held Aiov up and they briefly rubbed noses. “Just a little one!” The Anatidae laughed. “I can see living with the human has had quite a profound effect on you.” With one of his trademark grins he held Aiov out towards Eruwenn. “Wanna nose rub?” "Ah," the councillor said, shrinking back from the offer, "despite her size she is still a predator, and I am not quite ready for such a close encounter.” From the pilot seat Ripley stood, taking Aiov from Ranjaz. “She is not a toy.” She briefly snuggled the tiny leokit to her chest, then passed her to Jaym. “Take her for food and exercise; she must grow up strong.” Jaym also cuddled the wriggling Aiov close, and not just because the little leokit was adorable. Aiov had tripled in size, and was becoming a bit of a handful. “Thor was preparing her food; I’ll take her down to him.” Once the junior engineer had left, and Ripley returned to the pilot seat, Ranjaz began tapping on the console in front of him. “Looks like we’ll be free to take the shuttle down to the surface with the next group.” Cygna drummed her fingers on the arms of her chair. “I didn’t realise it would be so busy.” Ranjaz shrugged. “There was a quake on the fourth planet, so mining colonies are shut down while the nerds poke around. Along with that, we got three big freighters waiting for resupply. That’s a lot of bored folks looking to kill time.” Ripley grunted, prompting a chuckle from the Kittran. “You don’t approve of their choice of leisure activity?” After their few cycles together Eruwenn was already learning a lot about her shipmates. Ripley, for instance, wasn’t one for talking. She decided to interject before the Captain irritated her too much, as they would need her focus soon enough. “Gambling and pleasure palaces are not to everyone's taste, of course, but these sorts of things are covered under local governance.” Without skipping a beat Ranjaz replied, “I know that’s the official line, but you sure as shit have tax codes for all of it. If you want to look down on folks, don’t pretend you aren’t profiting from it.” Cygna, ever defensive of her mentor, jumped in. “That’s a bold statement for someone who never paid a credit in tax until it was automatically deducted from his Galactic Federation pay.” Ranjaz laughed, then continued, keeping his voice care-free. “Taxed on what? I never owned anything.” Eruwenn could see the trap her junior was walking into but decided to let this be a learning experience. The Kittran was wily, and the Anatidae found him entertaining. Cygna, as she had predicted, scoffed at his claims. “I’ve read your file. When you were arrested you had a ship, five shuttles and thousands in valuable goods confiscated.” “Exactly!” His eyes lit up as he cornered her. “It was confiscated because it was stolen, so I didn’t own it. Imagine a world where you can keep stolen goods if you pay tax on them. Even I think that’s crazy.” The Fae’Dan paused, and the anger evaporated from her voice as she realized what he had said, replaced by a slightly impressed tone of surprise. “Well, maybe, but… Really? You stole all of it?” Ranjaz shrugged. “Or won it. I’m pretty good at Dalcho.” Cygna perked up. “I play Dalcho myself, we shou-” “No,” Eruwenn interrupted. Some lessons were too expensive. “Do not play Dalcho with someone who can get free priority entry permits to a casino.” The former operative shook her head. “I’m a great player, you’ve seen me in the council chambers. I took that Ley’Rulian trader for five hundred credits.” The Anatidae smiled kindly. “And he had five shuttles when he was arrested.” Cygna slowly turned from Eruwenn to Ranjaz, noticing his grin and the sparkle in his eye. It was most definitely the smile of a predator. He gave a little chuckle. “Don’t worry, it’s been a long time since I played. No gambling on Galactic Federation ships, you know.” He laughed again. “Oh wait, you read my file.” The Fae’Dan nodded. “Perhaps we should focus on the mission.” She gave a slight bow to Eruwenn before returning her attention to her console. Ranjaz looked at Eruwenn and stuck out his tongue. “Don’t ruin my fun!” The Ambassador smiled. “I don’t play Dalcho, but there is a human game called chess I quite enjoy. Perhaps we could play sometime?” The Kittran gave a nod. Keeping his voice neutral, he replied. “I don’t know that one, but there’s another human game we could try. Poker?” "We have permission to dock at the holding ring and send down a shuttle," Ripley abruptly called out. "Let’s get this whatever it is and make the rendez-vous.” Both of Ranjaz’s fangs showed as he grinned. “If we’re going to pull a job on Chisola Prime, first you’re going to need to look the part!”
Aaron walked down the corridor of the Hive ship, the strange spiderlike creature trailing behind him as he followed one of the corpse vines as it receded deeper into the ship. He turned and watched the creature, which shrank back from him and crouched low to the ground. “I’m sorry I kicked you. You simply startled me; you don’t have to hide.” The lighting never changed in the endless corridors of the ship, and only the most uninteresting of doors deigned open for him. At this point, he had lost track of time completely. Through perseverance he’d made several important discoveries. The bulbous shapes in the flower vase room were seats; he was fairly certain of that after finding another room with bodies sitting in them. The vines that came for them were the ones he was now following, and by now he must have seen hundreds of dead Hive. The second discovery was that the Hive came in a variety of shapes and sizes. There were two main ones, as far as he could tell, and the first were the four legged kind that had so kindly thrown him in the rejuvenating jelly bean. The second was bipedal, and looked a hell of a lot meaner. While the ones he deemed workers looked somewhat like ants to him, in shades of reds and browns, the second type looked much more commanding. Their carapace had thicker layers of armour in green, gold and red, and was spiked at the shoulders and joints. Even their legs had spines and to top the look off their heads were much more angular. Whether they were soldiers, commanders, or something else, he didn’t know. Through observation of the corpses he had discovered the most confusing feature yet: a strange section in the centre of their abdomen that was filled with what seemed to be a grey fluid. Ahead of him, not skittering away like the rest, was an aphid that no longer emitted a pale green glow. Something whooshed overhead towards the slow and sluggish aphid, and Aaron instinctively threw himself to the ground before he realized what it was. "That's how you get kicked!” He stood up, brushing himself off. “Fuck, that scares the ever-loving shit out of me every fucking time.” The huge creature looked up at him and whined as it munched on the sick aphid. He was probably imagining the apology in its eyes, but Aaron still shook his head. “I know, I know. It’s your job. They clean the floors, you keep their population healthy. Just stop leaping over me like that, fuck. I’m going to have a heart attack.” It whined and backed away from his angry words, and he tried to keep his voice to calmer tones. “Don’t be like that. I’ve told you enough times.” When he looked down the corridor again, the retreating corpse vines had disappeared around a corner. Aaron began to jog after them, and after he'd put some distance in he heard the pattering footsteps of his terrifying shadow. He tried to pay it no mind. Once the vines were back in sight he slowed and followed behind them, singing his direction song quietly to himself. “Left, right, straight. Left, left, right. Straight, straight, left, left. Right, right, straight, right, right.” The ship was massive and, other than some areas smelling funkier than others, there was no variation in lighting, decoration or layout. The song was his map back to the rejuvenation pod, which was his only safe source of hydration. His companion padded along behind him, a friendly nightmare to accompany him on his seemingly endless journey. “We really need to give you a name.” He wished he had his phone with him so he could channel all his nervous energy into making a video. “The audience demands a name. Plus, I won’t be able to sell merch without one.” He turned and looked at the creature. “I’ll probably have to create space-halloween first, or maybe I’ll get lucky and find that you’re cute to some species.” Aaron returned to following the corpse vine, waving a hand high as he spoke, gesticulating to the heavens. “The name is what matters: a good name makes all the difference.” He began seriously pondering the naming matter. “Aragog, Shelob; you know, lean into your size for a characterization. But then again, that's not really going to make people like you.” He looked back over his shoulder as the unnamed beast trotted happily behind him. He assumed happy, at least. It now tended to make an odd gurgling noise after eating, and it roamed closer to him than before. “You know, I never got to name Sassie – she’s my dog. I told you about her yesterday, or the day before.” He really was losing track of the days he’d been here. “I got her from a rescue. She was skinny, and so damn angry, with scars on her legs and under her fur. I had to have special visits before I could keep her. Prove I was worthy.” Talking helped take his mind from the gnawing emptiness in his stomach. Hydration and nutrients osmotically obtained from some weird pod were nowhere near as satisfying as a burger and a cold beer. “Her first visit, she had a rubber ball. It was her only possession, and she loved it.” There was a touch of pride in his voice. “Took me an hour before she gave it up to play. The lady from the rescue centre said I was the first.” He choked up, blinking back tears. “Anyway, couple more visits and she got to stay. Crazy dog was such a handful. She once tried to climb a tree to chase a squirrel. Got her legs over the first branch and just dangled, kicking her back legs.” He began chuckling to himself. “She once tried to jump through a car window; some guy was parked at the lights as we walked past.” He was just chatting now, lost in his memories as he walked. “You know the type, loud radio, windows rolled down on a sunny day, annoying the shit out of everyone in the town. He tossed some litter out of his window and she just launched herself at him. Scared the life out of me at the time - funny as fuck now, of course.” He laughed again. “Then there were the swans. Man, were they not ready. She loved to swim – I told you that before – swimming and splashing was her favourite release. Well, that and chasing rabbits which is, kinda, how I ended up here. Anyway, she would just swim up and down, right past the ducks and stuff, somehow never interested in them. Then one summer these swans came along...” He paused, realising his new friend didn’t know what a duck or a swan was, or even summer, probably. Before attempting to explain, he realised they also didn’t understand english, so it really didn’t matter. “Anyway, swans being belligerent bastards, I called her out of the water straight away. Those mean white fuckers chased her all the way to shore.” He turned around, now grinning broadly. “But, once her feet hit the ground in the shallow water and she was able to stand, did those sons of bitches turn and swim away as fast as they could.” He paused, trying to remember his original point. He really was very hungry. “Oh yeah, so trying to stop her fighting everything that moved meant I didn’t have time to teach her a new name. Figured it would be confusing to her. Sassie she was, and so Sassie she stayed.” There was a tightening in his chest as he thought of her missing him. “Took a lot of years and a lot of time for her to get where she is now. I know Alexa will take care of her, but still, it’s my job, and I need to get back to doing it. She won’t understand…” He choked up completely, taking a moment to compose himself before clearing his throat and returning his monologue to its original course. “Anyway, names. Names matter.” “Maybe you’re a girl monster. Charlotte?” He shook his head. That name just didn’t seem fitting. “We could call you Peter Parker? Although, you’re more of a man-sized spider than a spiderman... Parker Peter? Then again, big, scary spiders say one thing to me. Australia. You like to jump, we could call you Roo? Or, how about Ozzy? Or Bruce? Hmm, that’s a sharks name though… can you swim?” His train of thought derailed suddenly as he saw an open door ahead of them through which the vines were receding. The pair of them continued walking behind the vine until it disappeared into the doorway and Aaron ran forward, pulling something from his pocket. He’d been saving the foil wrapping from the ration bricks, folding them together to form a wedge. He jammed his makeshift door stop under the bottom corner of the door as it began to slide shut. It ground to a halt. “Boom! Told you it would work.” He stood and finally looked into the vastness beyond. Through the doors was, somehow, a rolling meadow, complete with trees, giant mushrooms and plants he had no name for. Vines were also everywhere, receding further across the great wilderness. “What the hell? I thought I was on a spaceship? Am I underground?” Staring intently at the sky, he stepped onto the deep moss beyond the door. He looked at the wall around the interior and saw it was rock, and more plant life clung to every crack and crevice. As he walked slowly forward his eyes followed the vine as it headed for a large, colourful, monolith. He approached and saw that its shape was similar to the vase flowers. He watched as the corpse vines deposited their cargo on top of the monolith. Not on, he corrected himself;they were dropping inside. He looked back to the door, nervous that it might close and lock him in. A large black shadow lurked just beyond the door, and he was torn. Should he explore this 'outside' world, or retreat to the place where he at least had the rejuvenation pods? He looked up at the sky, basking in the warm and invigorating embrace of the sunlight. He blinked at the brightness, being cautious to not look at the sun directly, and something else suddenly caught his eye. It was, incredibly, a door. A door that floated in the sky. The thing about human eyes is that they might be easily fooled, but a shift in perspective can easily change what you see to something entirely different. Aaron was looking up at a ceiling, like the one in the Atrium back on the Azrimad, but a hundred times more convincing. Once back inside the doorway he watched the spiderling he was beginning to think of it as a friend dancing back and forth a short distance away. It seemed… happy. “Ok buddy, I’m back.” Aaron’s stomach made a loud gurgling sound and he rubbed it, trying to squeeze the hunger away. Fingers found muscle easier than usual, and he knew he was definitely losing weight. “We should head back. I need sleep.” He thought for a moment and made a final decision, bending down to pull the foil wedge clear. “I doubt there’s a communicator or command deck in there. Let’s go home, Ozzy.” The trip back was uneventful, Aaron sang his direction song as they navigated the labyrinth. A few more aphids were snacked on by his leggy companion, but his own legs were heavy by the time he was almost back to the jelly beans. Despite being exhausted he had made two stops to create another pair of flower vases for the aphids, as well as scattering a ration brick as he passed by. The aphids waited, as they always did, till he and Ozzy were far enough away before enjoying his bounty. Still, the human derived satisfaction from their presence. Exhausted and weary, Aaron was glad to finally make it back to the room he was reluctantly calling his temporary home. As the door to the rejuvenation pod slid open he was met, forcefully, by the barrel of an energy rifle. Unfortunately for Aaron, due to a considerable height difference, the barrel had struck him squarely in the groin, and he instantly fell to his knees. He came face to face with his attacker with tears in his eyes, clutching his tenderness and coughing. From the other being came incomprehensible yelling, as well as a lot of gun waving. Also, there was coughing. Aaron, eventually mustering enough self-presence to do something other than deal with the after effects of the gun-to-groin encounter, wiped the moisture from his eyes and tried to butt in to the one-sided conversation. "Relax! I'm the one who just got snookered in the fucking balls, here! Why in the world are you so mad?"” The gun was pressed to his forehead by the tiny attacker, who shouted something unintelligible with their black eyes focused on him. They paused to cough, then stepped back, glaring at Aaron until they seemed to feel comfortable enough with the situation to take one hand off of their weapon and pull out a datapad. They held it up, and Aaron frowned at the familiar but still unintelligible colours that swirled on the screen. Then a small vent at the bottom of the device squirted out a puff of sickly sweet scent. Aaron pulled back from the odour. "What the fuck was that?" With some distance between them, the human finally got a good look at his opponent. They were barely waist-height, furry, with a long nose and dark banding across their brown fur. The banding was heaviest across their eyes and although that’s where the similarities ended, it was enough for the human’s brain to forge a connection. “Listen, Rocket, there’s a virus on this ship. You need to get in the jelly bean. Trust me.” The rifle was thrust at him shakily in one hand, the tablet again was raised and a swirl of colours and shapes greeted him. “I don’t speak fucking winamp plugin!” On the wall behind his captor Aaron spotted a dull orange aphid, struggling to climb the wall. He smiled as he slowly leaned to one side. “Have you met Ozzy?” The huge arachnid leapt over them both, causing the newcomer to blindfire at the wall. Aaron seized his chance and snatched away the weapon. He grabbed the newcomer by the front of their armoured uniform and slammed them to the ground. They cried out in pain and began their incomprehensible yelling once more. The accompanying coughing fit was bad, and Aaron dragged them to their feet. Realising that his solitude had caused him to revert to English, he switched back to galactic standard to offer a warning about the disease. “You’re going to die!” A shocked look crossed their face as the human effortlessly lifted them and slam dunked them into a blue jelly bean. Ozzy gurgled happily through his aphid crunching. Aaron snatched up the energy rifle, but found it was difficult to hold due to its small size. He leaned over the jelly bean, noting the occupant drifting off to sleep. Hunger and tiredness were forgotten as adrenaline flooded his system. There was no way the newcomer was alone. He left the pod room to begin searching, and Ozzy seemed to pick up on his intention and followed behind, keeping close to the human. “Good boy!” He had no idea what prompted it, likely some automated response, and it was as though he watched his movements from outside of his body as he reached back and gently scratched the arachnid's head. He was rewarded with happy gurgles, or at least that's what he hoped the noises were. “You did good back there.” He made his way along the corridor towards the same airlock he had once chosen as his final exit. His recent suspicion proved correct as he heard a strange sound up ahead, as if someone was running a wet finger around the rim of a glass. He carefully leaned around the curve and saw another figure, dressed in the same uniform as the first. No fur on this one, although they were equally small in size, and they somehow looked like they were made of glass which couldn’t decide on a colour. This time he remembered to use galactic standard. “Keep your hands where we can see you. We’ve got you surrounded!” The figure was clearly startled, as the ambient resonating noise began varying wildly in pitch at the same moment as their colour shifted to a solid blue. Aaron cursed. He didn’t have a translator, having instead opted for learning standard and winging everything else. The whole federation knew standard, so he hadn’t truly considered getting the implant. “Something is wrong with our translators,” he continued to bluff. “Do you speak galactic standard?” A datapad was hastily pulled from a pocket, and as buttons were pressed the resonating sound became more rhythmic. From the datapad sprung noises. No, it was a voice! “Why do you speak Procyon? Where is Commander Bertolannixostraphes? Aaron began relaxing at the situation he found himself in, but inside he was brimming with joy. Finally, he could talk with someone! “There is a virus on this ship, and many are dead. If your commander is the raccoon-looking guy, I got them into a healing pod. They’re going to be fine.” Under his breath he added, “probably.” The resonating began and shortly afterwards the voice translated, “Who are you? Why did you not answer our communications.” Opting for honesty in the hopes of leniency, Aaron stepped into view. “I’m a passenger. I don’t have access to the ship's systems.” The newcomer was looking at the tiny gun, so the human tossed it forward. “I didn’t know if you were friendly. I can take you to your friend, and you should probably get treatment as well.” The now-orange alien walked forward, their movement accompanied by the strange sound of ceramic plates rubbing together. “That won’t be a problem, we Tricinic do not catch meat diseases. I am Tsy'lo, take me to the commander.” They turned to look behind them. “Where are the others?” Aaron pointed to Ozzy. “It’s just us two.” Colours swirled and the small glass person thrummed. The datapad spoke, “You are the last human, the Ambassador. Correct?” Turning and gesturing to be followed, he began to lead the way to the rejuvenation room. “I am the first human, Ambassador Aaron Cooper, professional bounty hunter. Just call me Aaron. Are you the rescue party? Is Alexa here? Did she bring Sassie?” It took a moment for the translation to come back. “I don’t know those names. We are the Special Tactics and Rescue Squad and we responded to distress calls and found this ship. Adrift.” They had walked a little way when Tsy'lo stopped and regarded Ozzy, who was still faithfully following behind. “Why does the achalo follow you?” “Ozzy?” Aaron shrugged. “I think he was lonely. So, were you sent into Hive space to find me, or are you on some top secret mission? You aren’t with the Sentinels, are you?” “Lonely? But it is an achalo.” Tsy'lo was confused and their colour visibly swirled. “Why would a rescue mission be secret? And, we weren’t sent, we were already here.” Now it was the human who was confused. “Like spies behind enemy lines? Is that why you are in Hive space?” The Tricinic hummed at a higher frequency. “It is our space. We are the Hive!”
Admiral Pelar of the third fleet stood in the centre of the training mat. On the floor around her were four tough looking Ashi, while a fifth was now squaring off against her. She blocked the jab and the surprise knee strike that followed, turning effortlessly to bring her elbow to her opponents ribs. With another deft turn she was behind him and kicking his knees forward. He tried to roll clear but she had anticipated the move and, as he rose, her spinning boot struck the side of his head. “Nice try gentlemen.” She walked away and caught a towel thrown by the drill instructor. “That last one has potential,” she said, and the drill instructor nodded. “Next time, I expect at least one of them to land a hit. If not, I’ll have you in the ring instead, to make sure you still have what it takes.” She saw the fear in his eyes. “I accept nothing but the best from the Third Fleet.” The medics ran onto the mat as she dabbed at her forehead, and she spotted Jar’Bek sitting on a bench nearby. She walked over to him and he stood, straightening what was no doubt an extremely expensive suit. “From one disappointment to another.” The lawyer smiled. “Imagine only seeing your son when he is paid to be in your presence,” he countered. She smirked. “Your tongue is still your most deadly weapon.” He nodded. “Ah, but it must make you proud to see me make use of the things you taught me.” Her face twitched. “I taught you to be a true Ashi, a soldier. I taught you to respect-” Jar’Bek held up his hand. “I’m here on my client’s business, not yours. And, as I am paid a considerable sum per gal, let us not waste their money on matters that are concluded.” He enjoyed the irritation on her face. “I am here to finalise the amnesty treaties, and conclude your membership as citizens of Earth.” The Admiral held up her hands, looking down at her combat training clothing. “I must shower and change first. Please, wait for me in my private office.” She smiled politely. “No.” His smile seemed to hover as if it was a mask that could slip at any time. “You may have disowned me, but I still remember your tricks. You knew the time of our meeting; you had me brought here so you could intimidate me with this display of aggression. Then you ask me to wait in your office amongst your memorabilia and trophies.” He watched the anger behind her eyes. “You really think these tired old tricks will work on me?” She sneered. “At least you remember something.” “Oh, I had the scars removed, but I kept the lessons.” He walked away. “My client's time is valuable and I have scheduled a meeting with the other fleet Admiral’s for later this cycle. Since we have no time for your games, let us go to the briefing room. My team is already set up. If you wish to shower, know that it is more of your negotiating time you are wasting, and I do so hate waste.” He collected his briefcase and walked out of the room. Captain Loring hurried after Jar’Bek, catching him as he entered the elevator. “You sure you want to antagonise the Admiral like that?” He leaned back against the wall of the elevator and relaxed, letting out a small sigh. “A little negotiating trick a Kittran taught me. Anyway, she is no longer my Admiral.” Elora’Tan leaned back on the opposite wall. “She is your mother, Jar.” “Ha.” Jar’Bek laughed. “She disowned me. This is the first contact we’ve had in I forget how many celes. Her first thought is to try and intimidate me with that display. She likes to beat on cadets, she likes to cause pain, and she wanted me to watch.” Loring gave a weak smile. “It forges strong soldiers. We can’t afford weakness.” The elevator stopped and Jar’Bek took a step closer to Elora’Tan. “You think it was weakness that made me leave?” He didn’t let her answer, turning and exiting into the hallway. His voice now resonated with authority as he growled, “In case you people have forgotten, the Ashi will operate under the same rules as the rest of the colony. My mother is not the law... I am the law.”
I would say that I'm relatively new to Reddit and the one thing that surprised me is the number of people that still play on Bovada, Ignition, Betonline, MyBookie, etc. Don't get me wrong, great sites for sports betting and poker, but absolutely horrendous when it comes to slots and live casino games. Hitting 1,000x on a slot on Bovada is like a once in a lifetime achievement and the live dealer provider is... awful. Over the past month or so, I have seen this Reddit flooded with random users promoting a bunch of shitty no-name crypto casinos that have been around for like 3 days. So I figured it was my duty, as somebody who has no ownership interests in any of these online crypto casinos, to share my thoughts regarding the ones that I believe are trustworthy. All of which is based on first-hand experience and countless hours of research. 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Gambling is not a money making method and you will lose in the long run. The purpose of my post is to make those aware that other trustworthy online casinos are available for Americans that will (hopefully) make gambling online a bit more enjoyable!
Hi guys, I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert. I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning. When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions. The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts Part I
Why it matters
Using stops sensibly
Picking a clear level
Why it matters
The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.” You have to keep it before you grow it. Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around. The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices. Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.
Capital and position sizing
The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose. Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market. A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples. So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000. We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be? We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator". https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14 So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital. You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk. Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later. The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work. As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you. Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints. For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly: https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you. Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown. It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance. Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k. Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money. Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.
If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number? The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round. This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet. Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin. Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips. Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds. Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this: Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically. If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss. So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%. Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit! With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not. Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account. Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see. This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders. Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.
How to use stop losses sensibly
Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them. A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter. The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’. This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK. Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty. You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter. Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not. Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”. It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong. Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.
Picking a clear level
Where you leave your stop loss is key. Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible. If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200. The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up. Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD. https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802 If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend. So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level. There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section. There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high. https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81 Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument. Here are some guidelines that can help:
Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out. For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.
Coming up in part II
EDIT: part II here Letting stops breathe When to change a stop Entering and exiting winning positions Risk:reward ratios Risk-adjusted returns
Coming up in part III
Squeezes and other risks Market positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits *** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
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Hello everyone, happy new year! With recent release of Cayo Perico but not much else I wanted to touch base with the community holding out for GTA Online in Liberty City or Vice City, and debrief from the Cayo Perico DLC. Even though Cayo Perico came out unexpectedly (to us), it is a small but welcome addition to the GTA Online world. I believe that we still have reason to cling onto hope that that Liberty City will sooner rather than later, and Cayo Perico is a stepping stone to that demonstrating the map expansions are possible. While I no longer think that we will see a remastered city come this generation of console, but we still have GTA V "Expanded and Enhanced" coming in 2021 which may have much more than just GTA V itself.
Reasons why I think that GTA V "Expanded and Enhanced" is more than just GTA V with updated graphics
GTA V XB1 & PS4 versions already work fine in XBSX/XBSS/PS5. It looks and runs great, similar to a PC level of detail/performance. Why would a significant update be needed if it will be much the same if they didn't have big plans on top of that?
Cayo Perico proves that Rockstar's idea of "Expanded" can mean land expansion
Cayo Perico sounds like it was more a like a side project during COVID-19 WFH than something in the works for a long time. It is not unreasonable to think that Rockstar, with all their global studios now merged together, haven't been working on something big since the bulk of RDR2 was finished.
Why are they being so vague about the details, even to go as far as using a PS3 trailer for it... are they doing this because they are hiding something? Even being so far to be anticlimactic to take off the pressure from fans, and surprise us later.
What Cyberpunk 2077 has taught the overall gaming community lately is what happens when you overpromise and underdeliver. However Rockstar already learnt this lesson back in 2015 when they promised Heists in GTA Online, which kept being reworked and delayed until near the end of the PS3/360 generation and copped a lot of criticism for it. Basically every social media comment was "Where are the Heists", fans were frustrated. From that time onwards they never released details until about 2 weeks out from launch for a DLC. RDR2 was a bit longer, but only because they had other partners to consider. For this they originally gave it 1 year from announcement to release date, but it was delayed to 2 years, with PC one more year after that (which also wasn't even announced until one month before that). Here is a quote about what went wrong with Heists:
We aren’t ready to give an official release date yet, but we are confident they will be ready early in 2015. As you may have read on IGN, Heists were a much bigger challenge to create than we had originally anticipated. Early versions were simply not good enough and had to be scrapped more than once as we honed in on how we thought they should work. We’re happy to say that the pack we are now finalizing is something we are excited by and eager to release as soon as it is ready. We, as a company, have always been about trying to make something that is good rather than hitting a date. We apologize when this gets frustrating but firmly believe that rushing out second-rate content does not do anyone any favors. Hopefully you agree that yesterday’s new Trailer is a sign that Heists are shaping up nicely, but we still need some time to fine tune them. Because we need a little time to get Heists right, we are going to give you a small Christmas gift to keep you entertained until we are done with them.
Reasons why I think something related to Liberty City is most likely to be the next major GTA Online expansion to come
GTA IV & EFLC is highly regarded as a masterpiece, it's fanbase is still strong - many still prefer it to GTA V for a variety reasons, so it is a good candidate for a remaster. They can always make the GTA IV car physics, ragdoll, etc. come back again, perhaps as a user configurable option. Having the map there is the gateway to bringing these highly valued games back to a new generation.
The availability of GTA IV is terrible. It is only a Backwards Compatibility title on Xbox One (non Enhanced), runs like rubbish on PC - performance wise (and multiplayer is now removed), and the PS4 & PS5 doesn't have it at all. Most other GTAs are available for purchase, at least on Mobile.
GTA V is now 7 years old and the GTA fanbase is now bigger than ever thanks to GTA V & Online. A lot of new fans haven't had the opportunity to experience GTA IV because of the above availability issue. The new fans are desperate for a new (to them) GTA game, especially since it doesn't look like GTA6 is coming any time soon. Or maybe I'm wrong and 6 is coming soon as well?
GTA Online is progressively getting new content referencing to Liberty City or content ported from Liberty City (i.e The Tugboat, QUB3D), so they are not above re-using GTA IV assets or dropping hints.
It is clear that they have been taking the "lazy" route as far as making new content for GTA Online DLCs by re-using existing assets. Don't get me wrong there is still a lot of work involved, but still it is less work than starting from scratch.
But it would make sense that they will continue their more recent M.O. to re-use existing assets rather than start from scratch to save time, effort and cost.
Porting the Liberty City map to GTA V engine can't be that difficult, given that even PC Modders have already been able to do it unofficially (FiveM/OpenIV), so just imagine what Rockstar can do when doing it properly.
There were only about 10 multiplayer modes in GTA IV Multiplayer, it wouldn't be hard to bring those back to GTA Online game modes to recreate that missing experience.
With high profile departures of the writers such as Leslie Benzies, Dan Houser & Lazlow there is no doubt going to be a brain drain. I'm sure they were working on stuff before their departures, and I'm sure that RockstaTake-Two with all their billions of dollars will be able to find other top talent to bring GTA into a new era, but this will take time, and they can get things out in the meantime. The story of GTA IV, Map & other assets are already made, so this gives them a head start to put out games while they rediscover their Mojo to make GTA6 using new talent.
GTA Online is a Big Money Maker, it will make the GTA IV & ELFC remaster worth it because the remastered map will be used for both GTA IV & Online: LC (maybe slight map differences according to time period).
Why did they put so much effort into issuing cease and desists to OpenIV team for OpenIV's LCinV project (even though it used original game files, no piracy) if they weren't planning on doing something in this space themselves.
Cayo Perico aside (which is still quite small), Los Santos as the primary setting of GTA Online is still a bit stale after 7 years. They can't use 2013 Los Santos forever, surely. Not to mention that a new GTA release is already well overdue.
GTA IV Music Licensing speculation/hints
A little while back, a lot of music track licenses expired and they were pulled from the PC version, most notably Vladivostok FM was most affected with most songs removed. They put in some new tracks to replace it, which wasn't quite as good but it seemed like that was as good as it's going to get. But then they went ahead and relicensed the original tracks anyway so all the music is now restored again (about 16 months after being originally cut). Why go though all that expense of relicensing all that music if they aren't planning to capitalise on it in a big way?
Cayo Perico speculation/hints
Not much here directly, but I have played with it a little bit. The way that it's programmed is interesting. As far as I can tell, travel to the island is sharing a session with Free Mode rather than being a different game mode, which you can tell by seeing the player list stay the same as whoever is in the Freemode session you were in. There is no loading of a different game mode, it is just a cut scene. On PC you can even chat to people who are still in Los Santos. When you look at the map, you are located South-East of LS (just past USS Luxington), and if you move the mouse you can get locations of LS show up, it's just the map itself which is hidden. There is a glitch you can do to "free roam" the whole Island, or just go to the Beach Party standalone, it is clear that you are in Free Mode of an existing Los Santos based lobby. When I was glitched, I was able to take a Dinghy back to LS, LS was visible. about halfway there, the whole Cayo Perico just de-spawned similar to how the USS Luxington does, and also the weathenight cycle changed instantly too. When I was glitched but still on the Island, a whole bunch of functions were disabled like spawning cars, calling contacts, etc. What this shows me is that perhaps they are experimenting with how integration with Future GTA Maps will look like. Instead of loading a whole different game, or loading a different game mode, it could be one big Free Mode made up of all locations, the locations can not be directly accessed without triggering a cut scene, and the properties of how a Free Mode works can change depending on what location on the broader map you are in. One challenge I anticipate is that they wouldn't want GTA$ earned in LS to be transferred to a totally new GTA Online area. It is well known that a lot of it glitched and they'd want us to start getting rich again. They have also been experimented with holding separate currencies such as Arena Points or Casino Chips. I could imagine that they come up with a storyline where all your GTA$ Cash gets deposited into Maze Bank but then can't be withdrawn to cash or moved to another bank, and in LC you are forced to use a competing bank like the Bank of Liberty. Basically LS = only get Maze Bank, LC = only get Bank of Liberty. Cars/Planes etc. Can be not widely transferable (i.e. You MKII or Babushka holding a car has engine failure mid flight and crashes, or maybe you need to go to the Airport marker on food), and maybe some planes (i.e. Luxor) can enter on a visiting basis via. Cutscene of that vehicle but can't be saved at the destination into a personal hangar.
I hope this gives some good for thought. Keep speculating! At least until we get some solid info Here's to 2021.
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Gslot is the latest online casino from an established company in N1 Interactive Limited and there’s no reason it shouldn’t appeal to lots of players, just like its predecessors. Such a huge game selection is a big draw, particularly when its coupled with a generous welcome offer, regular promotions for existing members and a progressive VIP club which rewards its most loyal and prolific players. The design is simple but the site is well laid out and utilises characters from some of the featured games to give it a little extra style. With fast payments and withdrawals, and 24-hour customer support, Gslot looks to be onto a winner.
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